New Ising-SIR Model Enhances Understanding of Disease Spread Dynamics

A new model for understanding the spread of contagious diseases has been proposed by Dipak Patra, detailed in the paper titled "Modeling contagious disease spreading" (arXiv:2409.01103). This model, known as the Ising-SIR model, incorporates both airborne and direct contact transmission mechanisms.

In the airborne transmission scenario, susceptible individuals can contract the disease from their environment or from infected neighbors. Conversely, in the direct contact scenario, infection occurs only through close interaction with infected individuals.

Patra conducted Monte Carlo simulations on a square lattice to explore the dynamics of disease spread under these two mechanisms. The findings indicate that the method of transmission significantly influences the growth dynamics of the disease, leading to different growth exponents. Notably, in the direct contact model, the growth exponent approaches two for certain parameters, aligning with previous empirical observations.

Additionally, the model predicts various spatiotemporal patterns that can be observed in real-world scenarios. This research could have implications for public health policy, particularly in designing effective strategies for disease containment and understanding the dynamics of outbreaks.

For further details, the full paper is available at arXiv.