Understanding AMOC Dynamics: Pathways to Collapse and Recovery

Recent research by Jelle Soons, Tobias Grafke, and Henk A. Dijkstra explores the dynamics of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in their paper titled "Optimal Transition Paths for AMOC Collapse and Recovery in a Stochastic Box Model." The study, available on arXiv, investigates the probabilities and pathways for noise-induced transitions between the AMOC's equilibrium states using Large Deviation Theory (LDT).

The authors found that the most likely path to an AMOC collapse begins with a paradoxical strengthening of the circulation, followed by a rapid decline within a few years due to a significant freshwater influx. Conversely, recovery from such a collapse is a gradual process, requiring approximately 20 years for the North Atlantic to regain salinity levels conducive to a stable AMOC.

This research provides critical insights into the physical mechanisms behind AMOC transitions, highlighting the system's vulnerability to freshwater forcing, particularly in the Atlantic thermocline region. The findings underscore the importance of understanding these dynamics in the context of climate change and its potential impacts on ocean circulation patterns.

The full paper can be accessed here.